Craig Davis
Thursday's Lineup
100 DIME ---- MILWAUKEE BREWERS (with Gallardo) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over WASHINGTON NATIONALS (with Martin)
Honestly, I don't even know where to begin. This month of July, with the exception of the last two days (two very tough, close losses) has been a hot bed of cash. I've never seen so many easy winners in my life and today is no different. The Milwaukee Brewers are going to plant a big, fat "L" on the foreheads of the Washington Nationals this afternoon for a number of reasons.
First off, have you seen how poorly the Nats have played on the road this year? 12. And keep this in mind... they just took two of the first three in this series with Milwaukee, so coming in they had 10 --- yeah, 10 road wins all season long. That's worse than San Diego. That's worse than Pittsburgh. That's the worst in Major League Baseball and I don't see it getting better anytime soon. Looking back at the first three games of this series, it's obvious why Washington was able to grab two wins right off the bat: Poor Milwaukee pitching. The Brewers have basically become Yovani Gallardo and four #4 starters, and today the young righty looks to stop the bleeding.
Gallardo finally settled down in his last start (coming in off three shaky starts), pitching 7 1/3 scoreless innings in a 4-0 win against the Braves. He allowed just four hits and four walks, striking out six in his best performance since July 1st. Ironically enough, that game (the July 1 outing) was also against a team from the NL East. In fact, if you look back at his 2009 performances vs. teams from that division, he's 2-1, working 22 1/3 innings allowing just ONE earned run. His lone loss was a 1-0 setback to the Mets in which he struck out 12 hitters. Gallardo recently had a conversation with future Hall-of-Famer Trevor Hoffman about not "wasting his pitches" and running up his pitch count. Although his walk total in the last game was a bit high, he still has taken Hoffman's advice to heart and really wants to finish today's game with under 100 pitches.
There's more. Not only does Gallardo own the NL East, he owns the daylight. His daytime ERA is a full run lower during the day (2.35) than at night and his opponent's batting average against is a sizzling .190 at home. He seems to bring his A-game when he's pitching in front of the home crowd, especially when a crappy team like Washington has come into his place and taken two of the first three. There is no way in heck he's going to allow the Washington Nationals to take three of four on their home turf... he wouldn't be able to live with himself.
Now, let's talk about his opponent... J.D. Martin. A very small sample size to work with, but we do know this will be his first appearance on the road as a professional pitcher. He's had all sorts of experience in the minors as he was drafted in the first round of the 2001 supplemental draft by the Cleveland Indians. He was recently called up to Washington after a solid stint at Triple-A Syracuse, coming to the Nation's Capitol with a 2.66 ERA and an 11-3 record. However, in his first two starts with the Nats things have been a little shaky. A 7.50 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP is hardly someone I'd be excited about sending to the hill when I knew my counterpart was going to be Yovani Gallardo.
Look, he might come out and surprise us for a few innings, but in the end the Milwaukee bats will figure him out and make him wish he was back in Syracuse. The Nats are 12-43 in their last 55 road games, dating back to last year, and have dropped 7 of the last 9 in Milwaukee. The Brewers always seem to take care of business when they are a decided favorite of greater than -200 (24-5 in the last 29) and they've won 7 of their last 10 with Gallardo on the hill when he is coming off a quality appearance in his last start. This one is going to be ugly as the Brewers win by at least 5.
BOUGHT,PAYED AND CONFIRMED BY MARFA,IRONHORSE AND ME----------------GL GUYS
